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Home/ World/ Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification
Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification Group Stage - 3
Madagascar

Madagascar

4th in table
WDLLD
Kick-off
17:00
Thu, 12 Nov 2026
Guinea-Bissau

Guinea-Bissau

1st in table
LLDWW
Thursday, 12 November 2026
George V Stadium, Curepipe

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Our goal model
API-Football
Bookmaker
Madagascar Draw Guinea-Bissau
Value spotted: Guinea-Bissau win at 2.35 (model 49% vs market 38%)

Most likely scores

0-1 12.3%
1-1 12.3%
0-2 9.2%
1-2 9.2%
0-0 8.2%
1-0 8.2%

Expected goals: 1 Madagascar · 1.5 Guinea-Bissau

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals71%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Over 3.5 goals24%
Both teams score49%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
14%
Form
86%
29%
Attack
71%
0%
Defence
100%
0%
Goal model
100%
0%
Head to head
0%
0%
Goals
0%
21%
Overall
78%

Recent form

4 W 2 D 3 L in the last 9
29 Sep 2026Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification Madagascar 1 - 1 Tanzania D
25 Sep 2026Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification Nigeria 2 - 1 Madagascar L
02 Jun 2026Friendlies Morocco 4 - 0 Madagascar L
31 Mar 2026Friendlies Equatorial Guinea 1 - 1 Madagascar D
28 Mar 2026Friendlies Kyrgyzstan 2 - 5 Madagascar W
17 Nov 2025Friendlies Madagascar 2 - 0 Equatorial Guinea W
12 Oct 2025World Cup - Qualification Africa Mali 4 - 1 Madagascar L
08 Oct 2025World Cup - Qualification Africa Comoros 1 - 2 Madagascar W
08 Sep 2025World Cup - Qualification Africa Madagascar 3 - 1 Chad W
3 W 2 D 5 L in the last 10
29 Sep 2026Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification Guinea-Bissau 3 - 0 Nigeria W
25 Sep 2026Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification Tanzania 0 - 2 Guinea-Bissau W
31 Mar 2026Friendlies Burkina Faso 1 - 1 Guinea-Bissau D
28 Mar 2026Friendlies Burkina Faso 5 - 0 Guinea-Bissau L
12 Oct 2025World Cup - Qualification Africa Egypt 1 - 0 Guinea-Bissau L
08 Oct 2025World Cup - Qualification Africa Ethiopia 1 - 0 Guinea-Bissau L
08 Sep 2025World Cup - Qualification Africa Guinea-Bissau 2 - 0 Djibouti W
04 Sep 2025World Cup - Qualification Africa Guinea-Bissau 1 - 1 Sierra Leone D
09 Jun 2025Friendlies Gabon 2 - 0 Guinea-Bissau L
06 Jun 2025Friendlies Burundi 1 - 0 Guinea-Bissau L

Season numbers

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification 2027

When the goals come

0
0-15'
1
1
16-30'
0
0
31-45'
1
1
46-60'
1
0
61-75'
1
0
76-90'
0
0
0-15'
0
0
16-30'
0
2
31-45'
0
0
46-60'
0
1
61-75'
0
0
76-90'
0
Madagascar Guinea-Bissau

Side by side

Madagascar Guinea-Bissau
2 Played 2
0 Won 2
1 Drawn 0
1 Lost 0
1 Goals scored per game 2.5
1.5 Goals conceded per game 0
1 / 1 Scored per game (home / away) 3 / 2
0 Clean sheets 2
0 Failed to score 0
0 Longest winning run 2
- Biggest win 3-0
2-1 Biggest defeat -
0/0 Penalties scored 0/0

What comes next

Madagascar
Guinea-Bissau (H) 12 Nov
Guinea-Bissau (A) 17 Nov
Nigeria (H) 24 Mar
Tanzania (A) 28 Mar
Guinea-Bissau
Madagascar (A) 12 Nov
Madagascar (H) 17 Nov
Tanzania (H) 24 Mar
Nigeria (A) 28 Mar
Bottom thirdMid tableTop third

Betting markets

Odds: Bet365
Madagascar 2.88 35% implied
Draw 3.00 33% implied
Guinea-Bissau 2.35 43% implied
Madagascar 2.10 48% implied
Guinea-Bissau 1.67 60% implied
Over 0.5 1.08 93% implied
Under 0.5 7.00 14% implied
Over 1.5 1.44 69% implied
Under 1.5 2.62 38% implied
Over 2.5 2.35 43% implied
Under 2.5 1.57 64% implied
Over 3.5 4.33 23% implied
Under 3.5 1.20 83% implied
Over 4.5 8.00 13% implied
Under 4.5 1.06 94% implied
Madagascar/Draw 17.00 6% implied
Madagascar/Guinea-Bissau 34.00 3% implied
Draw/Guinea-Bissau 5.50 18% implied
Draw/Draw 4.50 22% implied
Madagascar/Madagascar 5.00 20% implied
Draw/Madagascar 6.50 15% implied
Guinea-Bissau/Madagascar 41.00 2% implied
Guinea-Bissau/Draw 15.00 7% implied
Guinea-Bissau/Guinea-Bissau 3.75 27% implied
Yes 2.00 50% implied
No 1.73 58% implied
1:1 6.00 17% implied
0:1 6.50 15% implied
0:0 7.00 14% implied
1:0 7.50 13% implied
0:2 11.00 9% implied
1:2 11.00 9% implied
2:1 12.00 8% implied
2:0 13.00 8% implied
Madagascar/Draw 1.50 67% implied
Madagascar/Guinea-Bissau 1.30 77% implied
Draw/Guinea-Bissau 1.33 75% implied
Madagascar 3.75 27% implied
Draw 1.95 51% implied
Guinea-Bissau 3.00 33% implied

Odds can change. Implied probability = 100 / odds and includes the bookmaker margin. 18+ Gamble responsibly.

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 Guinea-Bissau 2200 5:0 +5 6 WW
2 Nigeria 2101 2:4 -2 3 LW
3 Tanzania 2011 1:3 -2 1 DL
4 Madagascar 2011 2:3 -1 1 DL

Top scorers

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification
1 H. MastouriTunisia 4goals 0assists 1apps
2 M. MunetsiZimbabwe 3goals 0assists 2apps
3 E. ColleyGambia 3goals 0assists 2apps
4 Y. WissaCongo DR 2goals 1assists 2apps
5 ChamitoMozambique 2goals 0assists 2apps
6 Omar MarmoushEgypt 2goals 0assists 2apps
7 Mama BaldéGuinea-Bissau 2goals 0assists 2apps
8 Franculino DjúGuinea-Bissau 2goals 0assists 2apps
9 N. DorgelesMali 2goals 0assists 2apps
10 A. TiaMali 2goals 0assists 2apps

Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau: preview and prediction

Madagascar host Guinea-Bissau in the World Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (Group Stage - 3) on Thursday, 12th November 2026 at 17:00 at George V Stadium, Curepipe. Madagascar sit 4th in the table and Guinea-Bissau 1st.

Madagascar have been inconsistent, with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 games (W-D-L-L-D). Guinea-Bissau have been inconsistent, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 games (L-L-D-W-W).

Our goal model expects about 1 goals for Madagascar and 1.5 for Guinea-Bissau. It gives Guinea-Bissau the edge (25% home win, 26% draw, 49% away win), 46% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 0-1.

Verdict: our pick is Basketball (Away Win) at odds of 2.32. We also like Weh (AWEH).

Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau FAQs

What is the best prediction for Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau?

Our top tip is Basketball: Away Win (2.32 odds).

Who will win Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau?

Guinea-Bissau are favourites: our model gives Madagascar 25%, the draw 26% and Guinea-Bissau 49%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 49% chance in our model.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 2.5 goals in total, with a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau?

Kick-off is on Thursday, 12th November 2026 at 17:00 at George V Stadium, Curepipe.