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Home/ World/ UEFA Nations League
UEFA Nations League League A - 5
Italy

Italy

2nd in table
WLWDW
Kick-off
20:45
Thu, 12 Nov 2026
France

France

1st in table
LWWDW
Thursday, 12 November 2026
San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan
Istvan Kovacs

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Our goal model
API-Football
Bookmaker
Italy Draw France
Value spotted: Italy win at 3.90 (model 30% vs market 24%)

Most likely scores

0-1 13.2%
1-1 13.2%
0-0 10.5%
1-0 10.5%
0-2 8.2%
1-2 8.2%

Expected goals: 1 Italy · 1.25 France

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals66%
Over 2.5 goals39%
Over 3.5 goals19%
Both teams score45%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
41%
Form
59%
53%
Attack
47%
29%
Defence
71%
0%
Goal model
100%
50%
Head to head
50%
50%
Goals
50%
44%
Overall
55%

Head to head

Last 5 meetings
5games
2Italy wins
1Draws
2France wins
3.2Goals per game
80%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
02 Oct 2026UEFA Nations League France 1 - 1 Italy
17 Nov 2024UEFA Nations League Italy 1 - 3 France
06 Sep 2024UEFA Nations League France 1 - 3 Italy
01 Jun 2018Friendlies France 3 - 1 Italy
17 Jun 2008Euro Championship France 0 - 2 Italy

Recent form

6 W 2 D 2 L in the last 10
05 Oct 2026UEFA Nations League Italy 3 - 1 Türkiye W
02 Oct 2026UEFA Nations League France 1 - 1 Italy D
28 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League Türkiye 1 - 4 Italy W
25 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League Italy 0 - 2 Belgium L
07 Jun 2026Friendlies Greece 0 - 1 Italy W
03 Jun 2026Friendlies Luxembourg 0 - 1 Italy W
31 Mar 2026World Cup - Qualification Europe Bosnia & Herzegovina 1 - 1 Italy D
26 Mar 2026World Cup - Qualification Europe Italy 2 - 0 Northern Ireland W
16 Nov 2025World Cup - Qualification Europe Italy 1 - 4 Norway L
13 Nov 2025World Cup - Qualification Europe Moldova 0 - 2 Italy W
7 W 1 D 2 L in the last 10
05 Oct 2026UEFA Nations League France 4 - 1 Belgium W
02 Oct 2026UEFA Nations League France 1 - 1 Italy D
28 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League Belgium 0 - 1 France W
25 Sep 2026UEFA Nations League Türkiye 0 - 1 France W
18 Jul 2026World Cup France 4 - 6 England L
14 Jul 2026World Cup France 0 - 2 Spain L
09 Jul 2026World Cup France 2 - 0 Morocco W
04 Jul 2026World Cup Paraguay 0 - 1 France W
30 Jun 2026World Cup France 3 - 0 Sweden W
26 Jun 2026World Cup Norway 1 - 4 France W

Season numbers

UEFA Nations League 2026

When the goals come

1
0-15'
0
3
16-30'
0
0
31-45'
0
1
46-60'
2
2
61-75'
0
1
76-90'
5
0
0-15'
0
1
16-30'
0
0
31-45'
1
2
46-60'
0
2
61-75'
1
0
76-90'
0
Italy France

Side by side

Italy France
4 Played 4
2 Won 3
1 Drawn 1
1 Lost 0
2 Goals scored per game 1.8
1.3 Goals conceded per game 0.5
1.5 / 2.5 Scored per game (home / away) 2.5 / 1
0 Clean sheets 2
1 Failed to score 0
1 Longest winning run 2
3-1 Biggest win 4-1
0-2 Biggest defeat -
0/0 Penalties scored 0/0

What comes next

Italy
France (H) 12 Nov
Belgium (A) 15 Nov
France
Italy (A) 12 Nov
Türkiye (H) 15 Nov
Bottom thirdMid tableTop third

Betting markets

Odds: Bet365
Italy 3.90 26% implied
Draw 3.70 27% implied Our tip
France 1.91 52% implied
Italy 2.75 36% implied
France 1.40 71% implied
Over 0.5 1.04 96% implied Our tip
Under 0.5 13.00 8% implied
Over 1.5 1.20 83% implied
Under 1.5 4.33 23% implied
Over 2.5 1.67 60% implied
Under 2.5 2.15 47% implied
Over 3.5 2.62 38% implied
Under 3.5 1.44 69% implied
Over 4.5 5.00 20% implied
Under 4.5 1.17 85% implied
Italy/Draw 15.00 7% implied
Italy/France 21.00 5% implied
Draw/France 5.50 18% implied Our tip
Draw/Draw 6.00 17% implied
Italy/Italy 6.00 17% implied
Draw/Italy 8.00 13% implied
France/Italy 29.00 3% implied
France/Draw 13.00 8% implied
France/France 3.10 32% implied
Yes 1.57 64% implied
No 2.25 44% implied
1:1 7.00 14% implied
1:2 8.50 12% implied
0:1 9.50 11% implied
0:2 10.00 10% implied
2:2 12.00 8% implied
2:1 13.00 8% implied
0:0 13.00 8% implied
1:0 15.00 7% implied
Italy/Draw 1.83 55% implied
Italy/France 1.28 78% implied
Draw/France 1.25 80% implied Our tip
Italy 4.00 25% implied
Draw 2.38 42% implied Our tip
France 2.50 40% implied

Odds can change. Implied probability = 100 / odds and includes the bookmaker margin. 18+ Gamble responsibly.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 France 4310 7:2 +5 10 WDWW
2 Italy 4211 8:5 +3 7 WDWL
3 Belgium 4202 6:5 +1 6 LWLW
4 Türkiye 4004 2:11 -9 0 LLLL

Top scorers

UEFA Nations League
1 H. KaneEngland 6goals 1assists 4apps
2 M. OliseFrance 4goals 2assists 4apps
3 Lamine YamalSpain 4goals 1assists 4apps
4 L. WaltaFinland 4goals 1assists 4apps
5 V. GyökeresSweden 4goals 0assists 4apps
6 T. ParrottRep. Of Ireland 4goals 0assists 4apps
7 O. ÓskarssonIceland 3goals 2assists 4apps
8 Mikel MerinoSpain 3goals 1assists 4apps
9 Gonçalo RamosPortugal 3goals 1assists 4apps
10 João FélixPortugal 3goals 1assists 4apps

Italy vs France: preview and prediction

Italy host France in the World UEFA Nations League (League A - 5) on Thursday, 12th November 2026 at 20:45 at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan. Italy sit 2nd in the table and France 1st.

Italy are in good shape, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 games (W-L-W-D-W). France are in good shape, with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 games (L-W-W-D-W).

In the last 5 meetings, Italy won 2, France won 2 and 1 ended level. These games average 3.2 goals, with both teams scoring in 80% and over 2.5 goals in 60%.

Our goal model expects about 1 goals for Italy and 1.25 for France. It gives France the edge (30% home win, 28% draw, 42% away win), 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 0-1.

Verdict: our pick is B T T S (BTTS/GG) at odds of 1.63. We also like 2X, Draw (X), +2.5.

Italy vs France FAQs

What is the best prediction for Italy vs France?

Our top tip is B T T S: BTTS/GG (1.63 odds).

Who will win Italy vs France?

France are favourites: our model gives Italy 30%, the draw 28% and France 42%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 45% chance in our model, and it happened in 80% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 2.3 goals in total, with a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Italy vs France?

Kick-off is on Thursday, 12th November 2026 at 20:45 at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan.

Who is the referee?

Istvan Kovacs is in charge of this game.