All football fans have their own rituals on game day. For as long as I can remember, the ritual in Kenya has been along the lines of this: find out the game schedule on Friday evening, discuss the big games to look forward to on the coming weekend, bet on the jackpot, if at all, and then relax into Saturday. However, the ritual itself hasn’t changed – but the preparations leading to it certainly have.

Step one: fixtures and context, not just names

The traditional approach of analyzing a fixture begins and ends with the two teams named on the ticket. However, the better approach to take is to consider the situation: What team has played three matches in eight days? Who had to travel mid-week for their cup tie? Which team’s star striker is suspended? Early season fixtures are particularly difficult as the newly promoted team tends to be highly energized in the early stages, while the big teams struggle to integrate new players.

Step two: check what the models say — then ask why

This is the latest development in the routine of today. Rather than having to speculate, today’s fan consults  AI football predictions today on platforms such as PredictoBets, where form, head-to-head results, lineup and home advantage are fed into algorithms that produce free probability predictions for each day's matches in the Premier League, LaLiga, Serie A and many more. The interesting thing about this is not slavishly believing in the algorithm's result; it's comparing it to your own perception. When the algorithm clearly favors one side that you thought would lose, there’s always something one of you two knows that the other doesn’t.

Step three: respect the variance

Even the perfectly calibrated model will get some games wrong, because football is beautifully unpredictable when numbers are low. A 70 percent favorite will lose on three out of ten occasions – that’s not the model letting you down, that’s just football. The fans who get the most value from information are those that play in seasons rather than on single Saturdays: small bets, defensible decisions, and no running away from a bad weekend.

The new season starts now

Now that the Premier League season starts with Arsenal playing Coventry on 21st August and La Liga starts during the same week, it has never been a better time to change the process. The arguments in the chat will be just as fierce as ever. What will make this season different from the rest is the loudest voice in the chat will be the one that has done his/her homework.