Punters usually look at a league table, choose their favorites and leave it like that. This approach doesn't take into account the range of factors influencing a scoreline. Getting to know how to analyze a match means putting different data together, rather than trusting your intuition. Those punters taking all of these factors into account will make a more precise correct score prediction than those relying only on standings. Let's go through the numbers.

Expected Goals, Not Just Goals

The number of scored goals is not an indicator worth considering. Team could easily win 2-0 despite the fact it was outplayed for 70 minutes and suffer for it in its next match. Expected goals (xG) will help you get rid of the randomness and show how efficient the chances the team created were.

Consider the xG of the team in its last six or eight matches, rather than in just one of them. If team has an average of 1.8 xG at home but scores 0.9 goals, it definitely should be adjusted. In case the team concedes less than the xG against, this almost always means that it profits from the fantastic performance of its goalkeeper. Take this data into consideration at different venues. A team conceding 0.8 goals at home could easily concede 1.6 away because of different factors.

Defensive Form Right Now

The defense may be strong on paper, but still it can concede chances to score and does it with some of its players injured. Take into consideration data in the last four or five matches for the following:

• Shots conceded inside the box
• Big chances allowed per game
• Clean sheets in that stretch
• Set-piece goals conceded recently

Taking such a relatively short period of time into account helps to see the current form of the defense much better than taking averages over the whole season.

Head-to-Head, Used Carefully

Head-to-head may help you spot some tendencies in the game of these teams. Take head-to-head statistics with care because once the team has changed a lot since the match it played two seasons ago, this statistic becomes useless. The venue of that head-to-head match is also important, as the same teams tend to play better at home and worse away.

Context That Changes Everything

The data should always have its context. Consider these pieces of information before choosing your range:

• Key absentees in your team
• Consecutive games and mid-week traveling
• Tactics of your opponent and if it plays a high press or low block
• Experience of the manager in that particular match-up
• Weather affecting the style of play

The absence of one of center-backs could change xG against your team by half a goal – the difference between 1-0 and 2-2.

Comparing Your Range to the Odds

Once you calculate your realistic range, it's time to compare it with the correct score odds on offer. The bookmaker creates dozens of scorelines and applies margins making odds unfavorable in many cases.

The aim is not to predict one possible score. The aim is to find a situation where the probability from your calculation is higher than the implied probability. If your analysis gives the probability of 18% for 2-1 home win while the market implies it to be 12%, there's your value. 4-0 hammering in the match of evenly-matched teams is definitely ruled out. Observing the odds' movement in the last hours before the kick-off could also help as sometimes the sharp money spots the gap.

Wrapping It Up

Choosing the realistic scoreline means putting several kinds of data together: recent xG, venue split, defensive form and the context about absences and fatigue. All of these factors work well combined, but separately they don't give any result. All you need to do after narrowing the list is to compare it with the odds.